People

Professor Kai QUEK 郭全鎧

Associate Professor (PhD, MIT; BA, Cornell University)

Kai Quek studies strategic interactions in international relations, with a focus on US-China interactions.

He is especially interested in (1) state-to-state signaling, (2) the dynamics of deescalation, and (3) the origins of collective beliefs such as nationalism. His theoretical research on signaling has established new signaling mechanisms in political science. His research on deescalation pioneered the genre of real-world crisis management experimentation, by developing the first large-scale experiment in international security for managing a live real-world dispute. The experiment measured the nationalistic backlash leaders face for backing down in a territorial crisis, and tested strategies the government can use to reduce the backlash and decrease the risk of war.

He serves as Chair of the Departmental Postgraduate Research Committee, associate editor for the Japanese Journal of Political Science, and on the Board of Editors for International Organization.

CV: Link

Publications

Signaling, Information, War

  • "Perspective Taking and Security Dilemma Thinking: Cross-National Experimental Evidence from China and the United States” (with Ryan Brutger and Joshua Kertzer). World Politics (2024).
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  • "Managing the Costs of Backing Down: A “Mirror Experiment” on Reputations and Audience Costs in a Real-World Conflict” (with Shoko Kohama and Atsushi Tago). Journal of Politics (2024).
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  • "Do States Really Sink Costs to Signal Resolve?” (with Dan Altman). Journal of Global Security Studies (2024).
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  • "Relative Gains in the Shadow of a Trade War” (with Eddy S. F. Yeung). International Organization (2022).
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  • "Untying Hands: Deescalation, Reputation, and Dynamic Audience Costs." The British Journal of Political Science (2022).
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  • "Four Costly Signaling Mechanisms." American Political Science Review (2021).
       — HKU Research Output Prize 2022
       — Applied in Research Report that triggered the OpenAI implosion in 2023:
        Report, New York Times, Tech News
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  • "Authoritarian Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace" (with Mark Bell). International Organization (2018).
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  • "Can China Back Down? Crisis Deescalation in the Shadow of Popular Opposition" (with Alastair Iain Johnston). International Security (2018).
       — Featured in The Economist
       — Reprinted in Essential Readings in World Politics (WW Norton, 7th Edition)
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  • "Type II Audience Costs." The Journal of Politics (2017).
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  • "Are Costly Signals More Credible? Evidence of Sender-Receiver Gaps." The Journal of Politics (2016).
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  • "Nuclear Proliferation and the Use of Nuclear Options: Experimental Tests." Political Research Quarterly (2016).
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  • "Rationalist Experiments on War." Political Science Research and Methods (2015).
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  • "Discontinuities in Signaling Behavior Upon the Decision for War: An Analysis of China’s Prewar Signaling Behavior." International Relations of the Asia Pacific (2015).
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China, Collective Beliefs, Belief Systems

  • "Perspective Taking and Security Dilemma Thinking: Cross-National Experimental Evidence from China and the United States" (with Ryan Brutger and Joshua Kertzer). World Politics (2024).
  • "Self-Reported Political Ideology” (with Eddy S. F. Yeung). Political Science Research and Methods (2024).
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  • "Managing Nationalism: Experiments in China” (with Samuel Chan). Journal of Conflict Resolution (2024).
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  • "The Sources of National Pride: Evidence from China and the United States ” (with Jiaqian Ni and Mengqiao Wang). Nations and Nationalism (2024).
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  • "What is a Patriot?” (with Eddy S. F. Yeung and Mengqiao Wang). Foreign Policy Analysis (2024).
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  • "Reneging on Alliances: Experimental Evidence” (with Mark Souva and Weifang Xu). Research and Politics (2023).
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  • "Asymmetrical Fairness in Trade Preferences” (with Injoo Sohn). Research and Politics (2023).
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  • "Conditioning China’s Influence: Intentionality, Intermediaries, and Institutions” (with Courtney Fung, Enze Han, and Austin Strange). Journal of Contemporary China (2022).
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  • "Public Attitudes on Foreign and Internal Migration: Evidence from China" (with David Andrew Singer). Public Opinion Quarterly (2022).
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  • "Guns and Butter in China: How Chinese Citizens Respond to Military Spending" (with Xiao Han and Michael Sadler). China Quarterly (2020).
       — Featured in The Washington Post
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  • "Violence Exposure and Support for State Use of Force in a Non-Democracy" (with Yue Hou). Journal of Experimental Political Science (2019).
       — Best JEPS Article Award, American Political Science Association
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  • "Authoritarian Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace" (with Mark Bell). International Organization (2018).
  • "Can China Back Down? Crisis Deescalation in the Shadow of Popular Opposition" (with Alastair Iain Johnston). International Security (2018).
  • "Discontinuities in Signaling Behavior Upon the Decision for War: An Analysis of China’s Prewar Signaling Behavior." International Relations of the Asia Pacific (2015).
  • "Closeness Counts: Increasing Precision and Reducing Errors in Mass Election Predictions" (with Michael Sances). Political Analysis (2015).
       — Adopted by the American National Election Study (ANES) 2016
    Abstract   URL

Selected Conferences

  • "What is a Signal?" Paper for the Pacific International Politics Conference (2023).
  • "Win-Win Deescalation" (with John Koo). Paper for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting (2023).
  • "Reputations in Interaction" (with John Koo). Paper for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting (2022).
  • "Do States Signal Resolve by Sinking Costs?" (with Dan Altman). Paper for the International Studies Association Annual Conference (2021).
  • "Mnemonic Conflict Reconciliation." Paper for the Pacific International Politics Conference (2020).
  • "Are Costly Signals Perceived Asymmetrically?" Paper for the Pacific International Politics Conference (2019).
  • "The Existence of Four Costly Signaling Mechanisms." Paper for the Pacific International Politics Conference (2018).
  • “International Credibility Cost: An Experimental Investigation” (with Xiao Han and Michael Sadler). Paper for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting (2018).
  • "Heterogeneous Chinese Nationalism" (with Erin Baggott and Alastair Iain Johnston). Paper for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting (2017).
  • "Security Dilemma Thinking: Evidence from a Cross-National Experiment in China and the United States" (with Ryan Brutger and Joshua Kertzer). Paper for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting (2017).
  • "Crisis Management in the Shadow of Audience Costs" (with Alastair Iain Johnston). Paper for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting (2016).
  • "Understanding Chinese International Kindness: A National Experiment" (with Zenobia Chan). Paper for the International Studies Association Annual Conference (2016).
  • "Rally Around the Red Flag: Terror Shocks and Nationalism in China" (with Yue Hou). Paper for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting (2015).
  • "Realism, Idealism, and American Public Opinion on Nuclear Disarmament" (with Mark Bell). Paper for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting (2015).

Monograph

  • "Rationalist Causes of War: Mechanisms, Experiments, and East Asian Wars." Thesis (2013). (Committee: Kenneth Oye, James M. Snyder, Stephen Van Evera)