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Governments are a form of artificial intelligence (as are markets, parties, corporations, etc). They make decisions on policy based on various inputs, such as policy challenges and public opinion. These policies then condition those inputs. We would expect different kinds of institutions to channel these demands in different ways and lead to different patterns of adjustment. We compare the adjustment process over time in four different democratic systems – Germany, Netherlands, UK and USA. There is a long history of attempts to conceptualize politics in cybernetic terms (for example, Easton 1952). We use the thermostatic approach (Wlezien 1995, Soroka and Wlezien 2010) because this allows us to model the process of adjustment in quantitative terms. We have data on public expenditure, and data concerning public opinion on relative preference for taxation and spending. We model the dynamic interaction between public opinion and policy in each country over time. We find very distinctive patterns. For example, in the Netherlands we find a very strong policy response to public opinion, but only with a lag of around three years. (This is not actually surprising given the consultative nature of policy-making in the Netherlands.) In the UK, on the other hand, we have a pattern of massive overshooting and overcorrection. Governments continue to increase or cut spending long after public demand for this has been satisfied (and indeed has swung in the other direction). This leads to the public getting the opposite of what it wants for long periods. In the US, we see a similar pattern, although not as pronounced.

About the Speaker

Anthony McGann is Professor of Government and Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde. He is author of Gerrymandering the States, Gerrymandering in America and The Logic of Democracy.